On Deciding . . . Better 3.0

A week ago I posted for the first time on Substack and result has been quite nice. More reads of a post coming out of nowhere than I get here on my 25 year old blog based on analytics, but of course RSS reads these days are silent, so total audience size of a blog is an unknown. The community at Substack is really nice, reminiscent of the early days of blogging but enriched with many serious creators. It seems like the audience is looking for engaging content.

Writing on a schedule is a challenge that I’ll have to work on, probably by prepping more than a week in advance. At this point my goal is to see if I can get better at explaining my take on the topics where neuroscience and life meet. So I’m trying to take a single one of the concepts each week and try to make it understandable. So last week it was the illusion of self. This week it I’ve written about externalization of mental events as feedback.

In the meantime, I’m talking to some publishing industry pros about what to do with the manuscript. At this point, all options are still open, but I think a plan is taking shape. This writing, like my photography is my art. It’s for me and it’s my pleasure to share it.

When I saw that Venkatesh Rao, was “retiring” his blog of 17 years, Ribbonfarm and moving to Substack, it solidified my plan to try building audience there as well.

Here’s my first post there: Forget Cognitive Dissonance.

I’ve been writing in this space, hosted one way or another for just about 25 years now. The early days were exciting and we built up each other in a blogging community for a few years. Then with the rise of social media and commercialization of websites with ad driven clicks, blogging died a quiet death for all but a few high profile public intellectuals. I get traffic here from what I think is a small group of regulars plus some pages that Google serves up in the first page or two on note taking tools and camera equipment.

At least for right now, Substack feels a lot like a 2024 version of that early blogging environment with easy interaction with writers and low barrier to entry. Of course the monetization is a big problem with the balance between free and paid content varying wildly between creators.

For now, I wouldn’t think of charging for content as I’m after some more engagement than one gets at a site like this. I’m putting myself on a once a week schedule there with. more frequent notes here.

My other motivation, besides engagement, is to work on writing for a general audience to develop the ideas I’ve put into my manuscript. That’s put aside for the moment, but I know that the next edit should be an effort to be clear and systematic in exposition of ideas. I’m also curious about what subjects a general readership is interested in besides tools for thinking so that I can focus my next big writing project on something that might be more broadly read.

Dave Rodgers always notices when I start feeling the need to write in this space and I thank him for that. I’m glad to know that there are a few consistent readers.

A little while ago, I wrote about my review of what actually gets read here. It’s not the book reviews or philosophy, it’s the discussion of tools. And that makes sense, because it’s by far the most useful information for the largest audience.

And the last section of my manuscript is about positive steps and techniques for making better decisions. So it makes sense to focus there while trying a bit harder to lay out the unique perspective I’ve gained by looking into the brain mechanisms behind our choices. Because it turns out that it’s not so easy to make better decisions when almost all of them take place entirely outside of awareness by processes we have no access to or influence over.

After many false starts over the years, I started from scratch and finished a first draft detailing what I’ve learned over the years almost 3 years ago. I let it sit for a long time, but after picking it up again about 18 months ago, I’ve made it through a full reorganization and revision and have something that more resembles a book.

Along the way there were a few long detours into researching probability (focusing on Jaynes’ big book and) Polya’s two part treatise on plausible reasoning) and the neuroscience of perception and valence. So it’s about 75,000 words. A sizable book, but one that’s not really commercially viable in today’s competitive publishing world.

Why would it be tough to get published? Two reasons really. One is that I’m not known in academia, philosophy or as a public intellectual. This little corner of the web is visited occasionally and I’ve never built an audience eager to spend a ton of money on a book. Given the investment a publisher makes in preparing for print and distribution, it’s not a reasonable business proposition. Second, the subject of decision making is a very crowded area in the publishing space. For the most part, Economists have flooded the zone with their discussions of “irrationality” and “bias”. So books on choice and rationality abound, even if they don’t really help us much since most of our decisions are made outside of awareness and can’t be adjusted to avoid our built in biases.

It’s good to have this big project behind me and begin to think about next steps. As I’ve written recently, I’m look at options and but I think there’ll be more effort here as part of the path forward.

Thinking about how to best use this blog.

When you look at my most read posts here you’ll find it’s all tool posts. The Hobonichi, the Plotter, Cameras, etc. It’s true of my blog reading habits as well. Reviews of software, stationary, cameras, etc. I have to presume this is universal since the tools cut across all of the other areas of interest which are much smaller- topics like decision theory, systems and neuroscience. Yet we know that these small niches are where dedicated audiences are built through consistent posting. I read blogs on AI safety, quantum mechanics and statistics. All of interest, but nothing directly useful to me.

I’ve long subscribed to the idea that the primary benefit of the act of creating art goes to the artist. So much work is thrown out before ever seeing the light of day and most art never finds much of an audience. While creating is an act of communication, whether through image, music or words, it’s the artist that speaks and the audience reacts. The process of creation is itself valuable to the artist. Also valuable to the audience if anyone is there to appreciate it.

In most of the arts, we create a body of work and seek an audience. I make images and share them in a variety of ways including here on the site. There was Flickr, now there’s Instagram but at this point, we’re without solid social media support for my kind of photography. Since I’m producing it anyway, I remain motivated to carry the camera and make casual images, although no longer so focused on the craft.

Now having nearly completed a 75,000 word manuscript about how the brain decides almost entirely outside of our awareness, I’m now learning that non-fiction publishing is definitely not art. In fact, I’ve finally come to realize that having completed a manuscript is a distinct disadvantage in the commercial publishing world. I think I was a bit taken in by the self-publishing industry which operates a bit like social media- getting creatives to make product for free then monetizing their effort with services and platforms.

Non-fiction publishing is very crowded and there are lots of books on the brain, lots of books on irrational decision making and while none are really similar to mine in form or content, the manuscript I’ve produced has clarified my thinking and provided lots of opportunity for research, but doesn’t have the kind of simple point that the industry is looking for. It seems most likely I’ll finish the edit, self publish electronically through a few channels and move on to the next project.

I’ve enjoyed having the room to fully develop ideas as I’ve found the short form of blogging to be limited as a way to tell big stories. I do want to publish here more once the manuscript is edited and out, possibly elaborating on the ideas in the book which can serve as a basis for the ideas that’ I’ve been exploring.

This gave me pause:

Why To Not Write A Book · Gwern.net:

So, a book is a lot of work for a writer, even if it is mostly already-written writing, which crowds out new writing or exploration, and which tends to freeze them in place. But it gets worse.
A book commits you to a single task, one which will devour your time for years to come, cutting you off from readers and from opportunity; in the time that you are laboring over the book, which usually you can’t talk much about with readers or enjoy the feedback, you may be driving yourself into depression .

It reminded me of why I spent over a year on a first draft of the ODB manuscript and now the better part of a year editing, rearranging, doing deeper readings and thinking, thinking, thinking. You see, I’m writing for me, not to pursue a new career as a published author. For a long time, I’m been frustrated with the blog format to outline complicated ideas in depth. I’d write a post, but I had trouble writing it to be self contained enough to stand alone as an essay. Or having to repeat background over and over across essays to provide the background to understand the underlying framework.

Clearly, the answer to these problems is the extended format we call a book. Where development of ideas can proceed step by step with enough room to dig a bit deeper. That was the impetus to collect the ideas into a single work.

What I didn’t expect, but should have known, was the enormous value to me as author in working through the process of explicitly laying out the ideas clearly enough that an interested reader with limited background could grasp the big picture. Explaining the ideas to a reader means that you have to understand them yourself. Can’t get away with half baked ideas and unjustified assumptions. Plus, as one thing leads to another, one discovers all sorts of implications and truths that the writing process uncovers.

Now I will admit, as Gwen points out well, is that there is a huge opportunity cost in communicating on a regular, more limited basis. So often I’ve thought about writing here, but the priority just isn’t high enough to put aside the current activity to spend even a few minutes on a brief post.

Let this post stand as the justification to myself of the choice of working on the manuscript for hours when I could be writing here.