On Deciding . . . Better 3.0

tech ronin: To iPhone or Not?

The painful memories of looking forward to and being disappointed by the first Newton still affect my thinking on whether or not to get in line and buy an iPhone next week. I am an optimist and a technology enthusiast.

I know the feeling. I’ll never forget sitting in my car and staring at the Newton MessagePad screen that was almost unreadable in daylight. Some how I got used to it and perservered with my Newton for several years before switching over to the much more practical Palm Pilot.

Now I carry a Blackberry, required because of corporate mail. It’s a decent phone and a really good mobile email system. It has a tiny screen and can’t display attachments like my last Palm could, so I always need to travel with a laptop to read attached documents. It works as an EVDO modem with my corporate laptop (not my Powerbook). The calendar function works fine, syncing with the corporate Exchange calendar well enough. I’ve never been able to use it for note taking or mobile text database the way I did with the Palm. I blame this on it’s Outlook style Notes and Tasks which just don’t work for me. I use the Web browser for Weather Underground and Google Reader almost exclusively as they provide a pretty good mobile experience.

It’s on Verizon, so in Europe it needs to be synced from the laptop. I’d like to believe that I could switch to the iPhone, get global GSM, usable browsing, calendaring and note taking but I just don’t think the corporate integration will be their. I’d have to carry both the largish iPhone and the large Blackberry. I imagine that I could use the web access to corporate email, but I doubt I’ll get usable email and calendar integration. We use Blackberry. Otherwise you’re on your own. Like the iPod and Apple TV at their introductions, they will useful gadgets, but probably will take some time before they gain enough traction to force general integration.

If ever. I’m on the sidelines for this one. For now.

On Deciding . . . Better : Imagination as Simulation

Simple solutions to complex problems are usually wrong. Complex problems usually require complex solutions. In a complex situation it can be hard to know which variables are important. We tend to act from simple biases based on simple analogies once complexity becomes too great.

When decisions involve uncertainty, multiple goals and multiple effects technology can help amplify imagination. In my own life, I’ve been exploring how this technology can help me clarify my goals, understand my assumptions and help me act in a way that is most consistent with what I believe.

With my effort to set ODB 3.0 up on a new server, I was feeling a bit nostalgic. Via the Wayback machine, this was my first ever posting to ODB 1.0. My beard was black and there’s an energy in the writing that I now find admirable. I was learning about new domains of knowlege in Decision Theory. Having digested and incorporated them, I’m on to new challenges.

These days I find myself wondering about the border between awareness and . . . well whatever we’ll call the behaviors generated by the brain that we are not aware of as conscious experience.

If you believe it, the woman who posted this photograph on Flickr found, on Flickr, the photo that was taken simultaneously by the photographer depicted in the photograph. Two photographs taken independently posted and linked on Flickr.

Collusion? Conceptual art? Coincidence? You decide.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science: The backseat driver principle

The driver overestimates his control over the situation (including his own car as well as others on the road). The backseat driver (“Whoa–you’re taking that curve too fast!”) underestimates the driver’s control. As a driver, I listen to the passengers because they provide a useful corrective. Even if the backseat driver is sometimes annoying, it makes sense to listen.

My principle: There is no learning without feedback. Be open to every bit of advice, criticism and praise you receive. Evaluate it, but don’t automatically believe it.

This is image is for everyone who says that colors in Nikon D80 images don’t “pop”. I spent some time putting some of the Italy photos through the standard postprocessing for the first time. I had been hoping to have my new Macbook Pro by now, but it may still be “4-6 weeks” for delivery.

In order to get the look I want, images like this need to go through Photoshop where I can control curves and local contrast/luminance as I wish. I’ve been converting from RAW in Capture One, but I may give Nikon’s Capture NX another try once I have the new laptop.

Dave Rogers atGroundhog Day:

Image noise seems to be the “crippling defect” in most compact digital cameras. I guess it comes down to how “seriously” you view the hobby. Small sensors enable smaller cameras, which are easier to carry around and afford some very compact “super-zoom” telephoto lenses. But, the images often contain noise. I know what noise is, I can see it in an image, but honestly, the only reason I think it’s “bad” is because everybody tells me so! I mean, I understand why it’s undesirable, but frankly, I’m still just a little bit amazed we can even do the kinds of things we’re able to do with affordable compact digital cameras these days. So I kind of struggle with it. I read the photography sites because I want to learn what the more experienced people know, but then I have to listen to all the criticism of “noise” and then I start to feel as though I need a better camera. And I have a few. (Four, at the moment.)

Dave knows he’s being led by the Have crowd to believe that his compact cameras are “crippled”. You can do a lot with them, which is not to say that more amazing cameras aren’t in the pipeline. I think Daves right to use what he has and work on being a better picture taker.