I appreciate the comment on my post election thoughts from Dave at Nice Marmot, saying:
What James suggests smacks of “both sides” equivalency.
This is something I’ll freely admit to, but only as so far as trying to meet people where they are. My life is very oddly divided between members of the two sides. In fact, today, among the Trump supporters, the vibe was very much, “We won the Super Bowl. Season’s over and we’re ready for the next fight”. Which just reinforces my hypothesis that so much of this division is driven by group identification and cheering for one side over the other.
I know one thing from personal experience. It’s fun to deflate false views by logic and fact, but it doesn’t make you any friends. In fact, I generally see it harden positions as it ends up personal attack. I still remember getting upset at someone during the COVID pandemic who was in a group complaining about the truth about Ivermectin was being suppressed by the authorities. I guess I took it personally as a physician, but to this day, my interactions with that person are not the same, even though he was only repeating what he heard in his environment.
I had suspected that the outcome we got was more likely than the polls were showing and defended Nate Silver’s complaint about pollsters “herding” results to suppress outliers, which should be more common than reported just by chance. Mostly, it was a combination of the reaction to social change I kept hearing and the economy of the Biden presidency with its inflation. I don’t think that the achievements were really ever communicated. Per this nice summary: Bidenomics Is Starting to Transform America. Why Has No One Noticed? – The New Yorker. In fact:
“By a steep margin, Americans did not approve of Biden’s presidency. By an even steeper margin they thought the country was heading in the wrong direction. They were demanding a new direction that Democrats never figured out how to offer.” Washington Post
So now we move from uncertainty to suspense. I’m following Dave’s planned move up north and wonder whether he may be a growing trend of regional migration where we cluster by economics, education and social attitudes. While I had expected demographic shifts to swamp regional divides, it seems like our system is also promoting localization among the group because of our non-proportional systems of governance.
