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I’ve got a 13″ MacBook Air on the way. It was an interesting decision, long in development. It was worth considering formally because a Mac purchase is a 3 year technology commitment. And I think worth considering in detail here to illustrate a decision process.

iPhones are a one year commitment. At this point we all believe that the new version is going to be coming around each summer. AT&T has always given me the upgrade choice. I bought the original, had to upgrade to the 3G, skipped 3GS since I saw little reason to spend any money on it, then grabbed the iPhone4 which was a major advance. I await iPhone 5.

My iPad Experience: The Good

I’m glad I grabbed a WiFi+3G iPad on release. Its been a useful device, worth the money for the family just as an attractive media and browsing package. As a personal device, Useful, but not my companion. I never bonded with the iPad the way I have with my iPhone.

The iPad is great at a few things. Netflix streaming video, reading mainstream news sites (New York Times, Washington Post, etc), and Flickr. I think that iPad directed media will be an area for development and as a musical instrument, its got quite a nice start with synthesizer and drum machine apps. I’ve got a small collection. The twitter app is great.

Twitter is an interesting case because the experience is driven by the integration of the app with iOS. For interesting reasons, I had little interest in Twitter until just a few months ago. But the Twitter App on the iPad is one of my favorites. Its best feature is the integrated web browser. Click on a tweet with a link in it and a browser window slides in with the web page displayed. The iPhone app does the same. How oddly painful to have the Twitter app spawning web page after web page since there’s no similar integration.

My iPad Experience: The Indifferent

In the end, for me the iPad is a limited use satellite device. There are things I’d rather do on the iPhone or Mac. RSS feed reading has been a big problem for me on the iPad. I’m a longtime user of Google Reader, but I hated the need to do a two finger flick to scroll. It was something I constantly fought against but never found a better interface in any of the RSS reader apps that I tried. It odd that the Google interfaces on the browser or the iPhone but the iPad interface just didn’t work well. Reeder gets me part of the way there, but not enough that I don’t wait till I’m sitting with the laptop to look at feeds.

I was also disappointed with the iPad as an eReader. Its legible and fast, but its just too heavy for reading. Actually, my guess on the ergonomics is that its too dense. Its a bit heavier than a 500 page hardcover as judged by just picking them up. But the thinness and weight distribution of the iPad tires my fingers and wrists if I fail to support it. Web surfing sessions last minutes, but reading a book is a less dynamic activity and can stretch much longer.

A few months ago, when the latest Kindle was released, I bought one for reading. Its light, fast enough and the controls easy to use after a short period of gaining the right habits. At this point, there are no books on the iPad. I travel with a laptop and kindle, generally leaving the iPad

The lack of multiuser capabilities is another nagging problem with the iPad. While the iPad is a great cheap extra screen for watching movies or surfing the web, there’s no way to prevent other users from having access to the main user’s email and personal accounts like Twitter. Since its family using the device, I worry more about accidental deletions than malicious use, but it remains a situation in which a personal device is used by a group without a way to hide sensitive or important information.

Writing on the iPad

Extended writing on the iPad also has never really worked for me. The onscreen keyboard has works well enough, but has shortcomings for anything but casual text entry. There’s no apostrophe on the QWERTY keyboard. I think I’m not alone in thinking that the apostrophe is a pretty important part of english, what with its use in both possessives and contractions. Autocorrect is nice for simple writing, but get technical or expand the vocabulary and it increasing makes its own odd substitutions. Placement of the insertion point with the touch screen is really a pretty big step backward from the earliest onscreen editors like vi and emacs with their keyboard control.

I like the either/or world of mouse, cursor keys and keyboard shortcuts. The iPad enforces its tyranny of touch interface that’s slow. For a while I hoped that using a bluetooth keyboard would help with extended writing, freeing up screen space and giving me a full key set, but it doesn’t remove the conflict between keyboard and touch interface. I’d like to see how a bluetooth trackpad would do as a substitute for the touchscreen.

The bluetooth keyboard also locks out the onscreen keyboard, so that if you pick up the iPad from its stand and move to the sofa to read and edit, there’s no keyboard available until bluetooth is disabled. This is unexpected to me, since with my MacBook Pro, the bluetooth keyboard and trackpad don’t affect the function of the laptop’s own input devices.

Apps that keep their data in the cloud make notetaking on the iPad possible though. I mostly live in Evernote for note taking. It syncs perfectly across all of my devices- iPhone, iPad, MacBook Pro and Windows XP laptop supplied by my employer.

Reaching a decision

Over the last month, I performed a face-off between three options- iPad, MacBook Pro and a theoretical MacBook Air. The first two started with the huge advantage that I already own them. If I could come to a workable solution without the Air, I could postpone purchase until the next round of Apple product announcements, postponing the next hardware commitment.

I optimized both as well as I could adding apps and honing workflow to optimize each. I found in the end that the MacBook Pro was my solution of choice except for work email and document generation or editing. My inability to get writing working well enough on the iPad meant that I needed more.

I decided that a little more formal exploration would be useful. My usual approach would be to build a Tinderbox map, but since I had been working on systematically exploring the tools I had at hand, I decided to create a mind map on the iPad using iThoughtsHD. Here’s the result of an hour’s work:

If you’ve never used mind maps at all, I’d recommend giving it a try. Once you get the right motor movements for iThoughts, it becomes a powerful idea sketcher. In fact, I’d hold it up as a great example of a perfect use of the iPad. Its graphical and perfectly suited for a touch interface, needing small amounts of text input.

A mind map is a hierarchical structured document, always a tree structure. It resolves into a standard outline with the central node representing the outline itself and the first set of branches the highest level of the outline. Child nodes are children in an outline. The advantages to mind mapping are due to the graphic nature of the technique. In the map here, I started considering contexts for device use, but realized that I’d need to represent devices within the map. So the pink nodes are devices or storage spots.

iThoughtsHD is nice because it has some nice nontraditional mind map elements. There are callouts, links (the read lines with arrowheads at each end). I didn’t use any here, but it also allows floating nodes so one could create the kind of flat map that’s so natural in Tinderbox. Adornments, background map zones in Tinderbox, would be a great addition to a mind mapping app like iThoughts. Mind mapping would be an interesting addition to tinderbox since it too is outline based.

What I learned from the mind mapping was that I have a huge number of tools, represented both by devices (iPhone, iPad, kindle, MacBook Pro, Windows XP, notebook) and places (Evernote, the weblog, Twitter, etc). Location and connectivity matter, but influence choice between tools more than the nature of the tools themselves.

But I actually have fewer tasks. There’s work email and documents. There’s reading, photographing and writing for this weblog and related projects. Then there’s note taking which is information harvesting from the environment both real and virtual.

For me, there ends up being no way around the conclusion that I end up needing a corporate laptop for work and a creative laptop for content generation. So the best solution for writing in the smallest Mac that will run Scrivener, Tinderbox, Evernote and MarsEdit well. So the MacBook Air 13″ is on its way.

We must have evolved to judge risk and benefit well. So why are we so bad at understanding risk, particularly as presented in the medical literature?

Gavin de Becker  in “The Gift of Fear” advises us to trust the feeling of knowing without knowing why. We know what to do without thinking about it. I think these gut feelings are engaging brain systems Judgement from the gut uses the brains innate risk judging system. We don’t have cognitive access to it other than that gut feeling.

Mathematical models of risk and uncertainty don’t map onto the mind’s innate systems very well, particularly as odds. What does 1 in 100 mean? we are 1 not 100. Relative risk is a more intuitive way of expressing risk, but focuses on chances of failure. Often we have no idea of the context and the real probabilities of success.

Instead we tend to adopt simplifying, non-probablistic interpretations, e.g. “Cigarettes cause cancer”, Obesity will kill you. Violent rhetoric causes violence. Causation is assumed be certain and mechanistic. Exceptions disprove the simplified model. My uncle smoked every day and lived to age 90.

Maybe rationality doesn’t really work too well in the world. Probability may be more accurate way to model the world, but it causes fear and doubt because it can’t be controlled. The logic of reductionism and cause/effect thinking at least allows mental certainty even if it doesn’t work consistently. After all, what’s the difference between being wrong but knowing the outcome was uncertain and just plain being wrong? Is being wrong for the right reason actually better?

I believe that I can make a compelling argument against adopting the simple cause and effect analysis model. What do you do when you’re wrong? If you believe that going out in the cold with wet hair causes colds, how do you explain all of those guys leaving the gym with wet hair day after day returning perfectly healthy the next day? Abandon your belief? Start creating more complicated chains of events that include age and diet quality? We often end up defensive when what we profess to be the truth is not reflected in reality.

Is there something that is more natural than fixed logic but is closer to the way the world really works? Maybe cultivating the feeling of knowing without knowing why is that way.

But what do we call feeling through decisions? Neuroscience makes it “instinct” some kind of low level, subconscious, inferior urge. Rationality is always placed on a pedestal, elevated to the ideal. But adopting the view of an embodied mind, these feelings are no more or less important or integrated than seeing or understanding. Thirst or hunger are coming to mind as body signals. But where does the gut intuition about choice come from? Must be analysis and decision making by systems we don’t have access to but are using facts and perception. These are deep skills of judgement and decision making that start with natural ability honed by years of practice.

Rationality is very democratic. Knowing without analysis takes expertise, practice, and a commitment to learning over years. Perfect practice that leads to perfecting practice. So against “analysis”, I’ll place “mastery”.

I’ve never been able to find a good attribution for the concept of Be Do Have, but my best understanding is that current use arose from est and the Human Potential Movement. At least I heard it from a business consulting group that had its roots in the est world. It’s been traced back to 1912 book at least, The Master Key System
. Perhaps we can simply attribute it to what Stephen Covey called “The Wisdom Literature”.

The idea is that if we embrace mindfulness and living in the eternal Now, we turn the common mode of behavior on its head.

My own best example is buying gear. I love to buy things. Usually it’s photography equipment or outdoors equipment. I really enjoy taking photographs. I love being out in the wilderness, hiking and camping. But like many of us these days, I live an over committed life. I’m focused on getting the groceries, driving the kids to school, meeting my work commitments. Months go by and I realize I haven’t been out in the woods. I haven’t posted a single new image online.

A typical response for me to this frustration is to buy a new camera or new lens in order to take more photos. Or I buy my fourth pair of hiking shoes in order to hike more.The latest is better, lighter perhaps. Or maybe more like the old school boots that I had in school when I was up in the mountains weekend after weekend. If I have those boots, I know I’ll hike more.

The logic is that if I have the photography or outdoor equipment, I will have what I need to do what photographers or hikers do and therefore be a photographer or hiker. In business, having a corner office or VP title will clearly enable you to do what a powerful executive does, and you will be that person of importance. The logic is based on have, be, do. If you have the things, you can do the actions and be the person you want to be.

Maybe the logic is really lacking. It may just be a psychological shortcut- focusing on the lack and acquiring things to avoid confronting the real reasons why I’m not really what I profess to want to be.

The concept of “Be, Do, Have” turns this around. First we reflect on who we want to be. And then start being.

I have to decide to be a photographer, a hiker or a leader. Once I’ve decided who I want to be and assumed that personal identity, it follows that I will do what that person would do. If I decide I want to be a photographer, I will simply do what a photographer does, create images. Obviously part of what a photographer does is to use a camera, but the camera becomes a tool for doing. Finally, I I decide who I want to be, and do what that person would do, I will have what that person should have. In the end, that’s how I’ll have a collection of images, experiences of wilderness or the power and satisfaction of leadership.

This is a mental habit of mine when I’m in conflict and need to decide what to do. I need to ask myself, “Who do I want to be here?” It serves as a cue to evaluate what I really want and frames the decision in the context of real values bigger than the moment. It cuts through the rationalization and avoidance, generally revealing a clear way forward.

Risk analysis is a well developed theory and important in a wide range of fields from medicine to engineering. While it’s true that risk estimates are often based on very sparse real data, there’s often no better way of talking about somewhat rare bad outcomes. So even though there have been very few nuclear accidents, it’s important to estimate just how to build your new power plant to make another event like Three Mile Island or Chernobyl as unlikely as possible, even if the risk can’t be reduced to zero.

Risk focuses on what can go wrong. If we add up all of the risks in life, we know that the probability of a bad outcome reaches 100% since the probability of living forever is in fact zero. No one survives life. The probability of living to 120 years old is pretty close to zero. Death, along with taxes perhaps, becomes our only certainty.

Focusing on the innumerable potential risks in every undertaking and making choices solely on avoiding bad outcomes is paralyzing. One can easily come to spend all of their time avoiding and mitigating risk rather than assessing probability of success and making choices based on reaching desired goals. If you focus on the risk of air travel, you’ll miss that trip of a lifetime. In truth the risk of dying during that trip is so low as to not be a factor in the decision at all.

I propose that risk information be used to chose between alternatives when the chances of success can be improved without great cost. But looking at the path of life as being paved with risk leading to an inevitable death is to be avoided, I think.

We know there is a relationship between risk and reward. Betting on drawing an ace from a deck of cards should pay more than betting on drawing a spade. The ace is a one in thirteen chance. The spade is one in four. The cost of failure is small because the the odds should, over time, make losses even out even though the risk of failure on a single trial is much higher betting on drawing an ace. In no way is betting on drawing the spade a “safer bet” than drawing the ace.

Risk is the flip side of probability. Risk, the probabilty of failure looked at in isolation, leads to fear because we’re examining a bad outcome not in our control. But looked at over time, risk of failure shold even out over time.

Making decisions under conditions of uncertainty is hard because we have just one chance to act. It seems to be all risk, The things that can go wrong loom large. Deciding better involves a change in perspective, having decided to decide and having decided to act, to do, it becomes a matter of what action to choose. By embracing the uncertain nature of the world, the fear that comes from lack of control can be managed

Vaughan Bell of MindHack has written a nice examinataion of the link between violence and mental illness at Slate:

If suspect Jared Lee Loughner has schizophrenia, would that make him more likely to go on a shooting spree in Arizona? – By Vaughan Bell – Slate Magazine: “Seena Fazel is an Oxford University psychiatrist who has led the most extensive scientific studies to date of the links between violence and two of the most serious psychiatric diagnoses—schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, either of which can lead to delusions, hallucinations, or some other loss of contact with reality. Rather than looking at individual cases, or even single studies, Fazel’s team analyzed all the scientific findings they could find. As a result, they can say with confidence that psychiatric diagnoses tell us next to nothing about someone’s propensity or motive for violence.
“

It’s important that this be said because the belief in a strong link between psyciatric diseases and violence makes life even harder for those unlucky enough to clinically manifest mental illness.

I took the opportunity to leave a comment at Slate to reflect my own thoughts on how best to think about causation in a case like this:

Vaughn-

While I appreciate your efforts to look at the big picture causation question of violence and mental illness, at the individual level there are at least three strongly interacting factors: the disease, external stressors, and content of thought.

Of the disease, little more need be said as we know this is a complex interaction between genetics and environment. You discussed important stressors like drugs and alcohol which ironically are often also attempts at self medication that go wrong.

Here, many of us are concerned about the content of the abnormal thought. We know that delusions have a strong cultural and social content. To my way of thinking, also a strong metaphorical component because that’s how the mind works.

This was predicted. Political rhetoric using violence metaphors like gun sights, media reports of people bringing guns to political rallies are not in themselves incitements to violence, but perhaps provide content for the disordered mind and lead to a choice of political violence among the other options

It’s been a while since I’ve worked on any images. I’m tackling VIncent Versace’s update to Welcome to Oz. I plan to post a review.

I’ve got to hand it to Evan Williams. It’s not an accident that he’s been at the start of these large Internet developments.

GigaOm:

“OM: Do you think that the future of the Internet will involve machines thinking on our behalf?

Ev: Yes, they’ll have to. But it’s a combination of machines and the crowd. Data collected from the crowd that is analyzed by machines. For us, at least, that’s the future. Facebook is already like that. YouTube is like that. Anything that has a lot of information has to be like that. People are obsessed with social but it’s not really “social.” It’s making better decisions because of decisions of other people. It’s algorithms based on other people to help direct your attention another way.”

This is exactly where I think we are in the evolution of the extension of the mind by global computer networks. We are individual nodes or modules taking in information and producing behaviors. We’re individually limited in bandwidth both coming in and going out. Those are human constraints that have some fixed limit based on biology and time.

There’s an aggregated metalevel that’s too big for us to see individually, but can be looked at computationally by our machines and fed back to us as processed information. By analogy, the visual part of the brain has only indirect access to somatosensory input from the fingers, but gets access to the synthesized information to refine visual analysis.

This isn’t just limited to the internet. Another good example is how the genome, endless strings of four bases, can’t be interpreted by inspection. Its just two much information. But we very quickly developed computational methods to show us the patterns for human interpretation.

These are examples of complex, networked systems that require computation analysis for human understanding.

Everyone who is using a recent MacBook Pro should be doing this remarkable, cheap upgrade. You need an MBP with an Expresscard slot. And it needs to be bootable. Apparantly, Apple enabled this only when the moved to the Core2 Duo processor, designated as 3,1 and 4,1 models. When they went to the unibody MBP series, the Expresscard disappeared from all but the 17″ model.

But if you’re lucky enough to have an Expresscard 34 slot, hurry over to NewEgg and buy a 48 GB Expresscard SSD. It is without doubt the most remarkable upgrade I’ve ever done on a Mac. As I write this, its $106 dollars, free shipping. I got mine overnight from Edison NJ to here in Maryland.

You know how everyone is raving about the speed of the new MacBook Airs with their SSDs? Well this is a fast, PCI-E SATAII controlled drive. So you get an incredibly fast drive for just over a hundred dollars. It’s only 48 GB, but it turns out that a clean install of OS X 10.6 with basic apps is only 11 GB.  So there’s room for some apps and documents, but not mass storage of photos, music and movies.

But who cares? There’s a built in drive for that. Brilliant !And which the MacBook air doesn’t have!

After making sure I had a good Time Machine backup of the internal drive, I formatted the Expresscard SSD with Disk Utility and used the 10.6 install disk to put a system on the drive. The only trick was to choose options to make sure no other languages or unnecessary printer drivers are installed.

Then just boot from the SSD and you’re good to go. I use syncing through mobile me, so Safari bookmarks, calendars and mail accounts all came along instantly. I pointed iTunes to the big library on the internal hard drive and all works fine.

So far, I’ve put my current project apps on the SSD: Tinderbox, Scrivener, and Evernote. So far I haven’t moved the Photography apps over.

Would I ever swap out the internal drive for and SSD? With 256 GB drives currently at $500, I’d much rather run my current configuration. In fact, I’d find it hard to move to a MacBook Air right now because I’d have to juggle storage more or move to a base Mac/ working portable configuration. Possible, but needed for now.

This is the future for PCs. We’re already enjoying it on the iPad and the MacBook Air is the next step. It will be interesting to see the evolution of storage in computers, but I can confidently predict we’ll be seeing SSDs feature prominently. Given the size of the actually parts compared to rotating magnetic drive, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the MacBook Pro revision come with both an SSD and magnetic storage.

A bit about me. Really.

I earned an MD and a PhD in Neuroscience. I trained in Neurology at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and was on the faculty for 10 years. During those academic years I did research on brain injury, taught medical students and residents and saw patients with a wide range of brain diseases.

Then, at age 40, I got my first job in the real world at a biotech and began to learn about making decisions. Of course like everyone else I had been making decisions my entire life. And as a physician, I made life and death judgments on an almost daily basis. But I never thought about the process of decision making. They say that drug development is one of the most risky businesses of all, second only perhaps to oil drilling. Every day in a drug development program brings new challenges to overcome and in the end, the vast majority of projects fail after having cost millions of dollars.

I decided I was going to become as expert in decision making as I was in Neurology. My writing here is the result of my experience. It combines all of my passions in what I think is an interesting eclectic mix, combining Decision Theory, Neuroscience and Philosophy. With a healthy dose of self-improvement and avenues for personal growth for a bit more than just intellectual stimulation.

This is the third iteration (more or less) of my weblogs. I’ve got most of what I’ve written in the past archived. Lately I’ve been compiling in Tinderbox to take a step back and start writing regularly again.

Belief is another way of describing an estimate of the probability of truth.

Facts about the world are sometimes clearly true or false.  These clear cut cases tend to be the less interesting aspects of the world. They are the dependable facts of the world like Newtonian Physics.

Yet science and materialist philosophy wants to deal in these “facts” and dismiss all else as belief and, worse “speculation”.

Everything in between may or may not be known true or false, but is not an undifferentiated grey zone. The likelihood of truth is probability from 0 to 100%. Some speculation is clearly very low probability and some is close, but not quite certain.

Sometimes this kind of probability can be analyzed mathematically, as when flipping a coin or playing cards. I know that flipping a coin gives me a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. If my chances of getting on a plane depended on a coin flip I’d be complete unsure as to whether or not I’ll be leaving town. But if it depended on my drawing the King of Hearts from a deck of cards, I’d believe I was very unlikely to get on the plane.

Of course, more often its a complex state of affairs that makes me doubt I’ll be flying. I’m late in leaving for the airport and there are traffic and weather factors that can be known pretty well, but can’t let me be sure about whether I’ll be getting to the airport with enough time to get on the plane.

These statements about belief regarding a future state of the world are critical for deciding. Do we believe that the stock market will be higher next year than now?

More often when discussing belief, its more commonly stated in the present. Do we think its raining now? Do we believe that vitamin C is good for treating colds? Do we think the new drug can improve memory in patients with Alzheimer’s disease? Or the past- do we believe that Barack Obaama was born in the US?

Interesting, most of these questions of belief are important in the present because of how they will affect our present actions. And those present actions reflect choices that are aimed at influencing future states of the world. If I believe its raining, I will choose to take an umbrella. The truth of whether its raining will result in either my being happy I’m dry or unhappy that I’m dragging around an umbrella. I believe its likely the drug will be a blockbuster; I invest millions.

To me, it doesn’t matter whether we grab that umbrella without thinking or after 15 minutes of consulting internet weather sites and considering the burden of various umbrella choices in the event that it does or does not rain. Instinctive decisions or analytic decisions are based on beliefs that are probabilistic statements about the past, present and future.

Uncertainty in the world is way too complicated to submit to constant rigorous analysis. And too much analysis costs time and effort. But fortunately our brains are great estimators of probability- what we call belief. By honing the sense of probability, we probably can become better deciders through having more practical sets of beliefs: understanding the world and adjusting our beliefs to be more accurate, more predictive.